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Field Notes · Issue 015

NBER Working Paper 35697, “Do Online Job Postings Capture Job Vacancies?” by Michael Dalton, Lisa B. Kahn and Andreas I. Mueller, issued September 2026

September 7 to 12, 2026

Five pieces this week, and every one of them turned on somebody changing the conditions and then looking. A camera fixed to a hard hat, an auditor asking who actually logs in, a state making employers publish a number, a tool taken away after three months, and a cost nobody had ever bothered to total up. None of those findings would have surfaced in a report.

Field Notes: September 12, 2026
This week's reading
The Field Note

The week, read against the grain

NBER Working Paper 35697, “Do Online Job Postings Capture Job Vacancies?” by Michael Dalton, Lisa B. Kahn and Andreas I. Mueller, issued September 2026

A paper landed this month asking a question that sounds procedural and is not. Michael Dalton, Lisa Kahn and Andreas Mueller set out to test whether online job postings actually capture job vacancies.

The dataset in question is Burning Glass, now Lightcast. It is the same source sitting underneath Wednesday's piece on Colorado pay transparency, and underneath a great deal of what you have read about which skills employers want and which jobs are vanishing.

Their answer is a qualified yes with one sharp exception. Measured against the federal government's own vacancy survey, postings converged toward the official numbers between 2007 and 2022, and large employers are well represented, so conclusions about skill demand hold up. Smaller and mid-sized employers post online far less often, though, and that gap is not cosmetic. The postings data overstates how concentrated the labor market is by nearly three times.

Hold that against the week. Monday's adherence rate described the document instead of the plant. Tuesday's dashboard ran three years with nobody checking who opened it. Wednesday's salaries only moved once somebody had to publish them. Friday's lawyers only revealed what they had learned once the tool was removed. Saturday's meetings had never been priced at all.

Not one of those came from looking harder at a number already on the page. Each one took somebody putting a second instrument next to the first and comparing.

Which number does your leadership team treat as settled that has only ever been measured one way?
Sources
  1. Dalton, M., Kahn, L. B., & Mueller, A. I. (2026, September). Do online job postings capture job vacancies? (NBER Working Paper No. 35697). National Bureau of Economic Research. (Working paper, not peer reviewed. Compares Burning Glass online postings against the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, 2007 to 2022.) https://www.nber.org/papers/w35697
The Assessment

The Comfort Cover Story

on the friendly word that hides whose interest a rule actually serves

I spent two decades in a uniform. After that came years in a suit and tie, which is a uniform that lets you pretend otherwise. Then I landed in an office where the default was casual, and I kept wearing the suit. After twenty years of being told precisely what to put on in the morning, choosing it myself felt like a small luxury I had earned.

It made people uncomfortable. Nothing hostile, just the low unease a room develops when one person is dressed for a different occasion. So I was asked to dress down, and the request arrived wrapped in kindness. Wear something you will be more comfortable in.

I was already comfortable. That was the part nobody thought to ask about.

I switched to a polo and jeans and felt unprofessional for months. Not a sharp pain, more a low hum of being slightly wrong, the way you feel when you show up somewhere in the wrong register and cannot fix it. Nobody ever checked. My discomfort had simply been relocated to a place where none of them had to look at it, and the relocation had been described to me as a favor.

I want to be careful here, because there is a version of this story where I am the injured party, and that version is both boring and wrong.

Adapting how you present yourself to put other people at ease is often real leadership. A director who drops the suit so he does not tower over a team that works in shirtsleeves is doing something generous and useful. He is lowering a barrier he did not personally need lowered. I have done it since, deliberately, and I would do it again.

The sin is not the adapting. The sin is the label.

“The suit puts distance between you and the team, and I need you closer to them” is an honest request. I would have said yes to that in a second and worn the polo without the hum, because I would have understood what it was for and who it served. “Wear something you will be more comfortable in” was a claim about my interior life, made by someone who had not consulted it, in order to avoid saying the true thing out loud.

That substitution is the move worth watching for, because it is everywhere and it is rarely malicious. A friendly word gets placed over a structural fact. The word most often on duty is comfort, with professionalism working the next shift.

Look at what those words are asked to cover. A dress code protects the comfort of the majority and charges the cost to whoever deviates. A cameras-on policy protects the comfort of the person running the call and charges it to the people for whom being looked at all day is the hard part. A ban on avatars or a mandate for them protects somebody's sense of what a workplace should feel like, and the bill goes to the introvert, or to the person with a visible impairment, or to whoever else was managing something the rule did not consider. Return to office gets justified by collaboration far more often than anyone measures collaboration.

In each case the stated reason is warm and the real mechanism is conformity. Comfort is never a neutral justification. It always has an owner, and the owner is almost never the person being asked to change.

There is a harder point underneath, and it took me a long time to see it. Whose discomfort is allowed to be visible is a reliable measure of who holds power in a room. My unease in the polo was not hidden because anyone concealed it. It was invisible because nothing in that office was arranged to notice it. The majority's unease had a channel to travel down, straight to a manager, who acted on it within a week. Mine had nowhere to go and no name, so it did not count as information.

This is not an argument against norms. Organizations need them and most of them are fine. It is an argument against a specific dishonesty that makes norms harder to question than they should be, because you cannot argue with a rule whose stated purpose is your own well-being without sounding ungrateful.

The test I would give a leader is small, and uncomfortable in a way that helps. When you set a norm in the name of comfort or professionalism, can you say plainly whose comfort it protects? Say it out loud, to the people it affects. Most norms survive the saying. “This is what our clients expect and we are choosing to meet that expectation” is defensible. “It makes the rest of the team feel easier and I am prioritizing that” is defensible too, and a lot more honest than the alternative.

If you find you cannot say it out loud, you have learned something. Not that the rule is wrong necessarily, but that you already know it will not survive being described accurately. That is the tell, and it is worth more than any policy review.

The week's articles all turned on somebody changing the conditions and looking at what turned up. This one needs no cameras and no control group. It needs one sentence said out loud in a room, and a willingness to hear how it lands.

High Road Conversations
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High Road Conversations

This week's podcast slot went to Said Eshaghi, who left Iran as a teenager and crossed a mountain range on foot. The survival instinct that carried him through all of it became the engine for everything he built after that, and he is candid about how close that same wiring came to costing him the things it was supposed to protect. Worth an hour if you have ever wondered whether the thing that made you successful is still the thing you need.

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Lunch and Build
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Lunch and Build

I don't just talk about Agile and leadership, I put it into practice in my Skool, building and shipping real products with Claude every Thursday at 12:30pm EST.

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From the book
Agile Sucks!

The first chapter of Agile Sucks! (When You Do It Wrong) is called Successful Failure, and it opens on the finding that roughly seventy percent of organizations running Agile report healthy metrics while pointing to no business outcome that actually changed. James Wright and I wrote it because that gap is the most expensive thing in most transformations and the hardest to see from a status page.

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